EY Item Club predicts low UK economic growth for three years

Written by Oliver Wade
15/10/2018

The UK can expect low economic growth for the next three years, with a no-deal Brexit denting growth even further, according to the EY Item Club.

The club has predicted GDP growth of 1.3% this year and 1.5% in 2019, down from 1.4% and 1.6% respectively in its previous outlook three months ago.

The forecaster stated these figures were based on the assumption that the UK and the EU would agree transition terms. However, if this were not to happen, conditions could be “significantly weaker”.

If the prediction turns out to be accurate, 2018 would mark the worst year of growth for the UK economy since the financial crisis.

Earlier on in the year, EY Item Club predicted that the UK would see two interest rate rises this year, with two more in 2019. However, following the Bank of England’s decision in August to increase rates from 0.5% to 0.75%, the forecaster said it did not now expect another increase until August next year, with two more rate rises likely in 2020.

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