Residential property transactions ‘stable’ – HMRC

The number of residential property transactions in the UK during September remained broadly unchanged from the previous month, new figures from HMRC have shown.

HMRC’s latest provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of UK residential transactions totalled 112,370 for September, following 114,440 in August. The latest figure was also 9.7% higher than the same month last year.

According to HMRC, UK residential transactions have been “stable” in recent months but remain elevated above pre-pandemic levels. The latest estimate for September 2022 of 112,370 compared to 99,570 in September 2019, for example.

For non-residential transactions, HMRC’s provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate for September reached 9,940. The figure is 7% lower than September 2021 and 5% higher than August 2022, but is broadly in line with historic levels.

Smartr365 CEO and founder, Conor Murphy, commented: “Today’s data reinforces why the property market is famed for its resilience. Despite a busy and complicated period for the mortgage market and economy, activity remains reassuringly consistent. The recent stamp duty tax cuts will also certainly help to spur activity despite economic strains elsewhere.

“The mortgage industry must fully commit to digitisation if it is to ride this uncertain period as smoothly as possible. Making the home buying process as swift and stress-free as possible will not only ensure homebuyers can secure their desired property, at current rates, but also cut inefficiencies and reduce workloads during a busy time.”

Hargreaves Lansdown senior personal finance analyst, Sarah Coles, added: “House sales plummeted by a third in the year to September, but this shuddering drop isn’t what it seems, because September sales were actually well above their pre-pandemic levels. They were just being compared with a huge spike when the stamp duty holiday came to an end. The real house sales horror story will play out in the coming months.

“Sales completing in September were largely agreed around June, when demand had started to drop back a little, as rising prices persuaded some to rethink. However, while mortgage rates were rising, the average two-year fixed rate was 3.61%, according to Moneyfacts, so for an awful lot of buyers, monthly payments still felt within the realms of affordability.

“Sales agreed in the coming weeks are likely to look far uglier, as the chaos unleashed by the mini-budget pushed mortgages well out of reach for an awful lot of buyers. Moneyfacts puts the average two-year fixed rate almost three percentage points higher than the June figure – at a 14-year high of 6.53%. We can expect this to hit completion figures towards the end of this year and into the beginning of 2023, when today’s sense of mounting dread feeds into the figures.”

HMRC’s monthly estimates are based upon its own records as well as those of Revenue Scotland and the Welsh Revenue Authority, for SDLT, Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) and Land Transaction Tax (LTT), in each nation respectively.

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