OBR revises IHT forecast upwards following autumn statement

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has increased its estimates for inheritance tax (IHT) for the next six years following the autumn statement.

Between 2022/23 and 2027/28, it now estimates the Treasury will collect £2.1bn pounds more than was expected in the spring statement.

The OBR is now predicting IHT will bring in £47.1bn for the Government over this period, compared to the estimates in the spring that suggested the intake would be £45.0bn.

Despite rumours circulating in recent months that autumn statement might have included reforms to IHT, from potential amendments to thresholds to abolishing the tax altogether, the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, refused the opportunity to implement any changes around IHT.

However, the increased estimate from the OBR arrives following rumours the Government could still seek to reduce the impact of IHT on households in its upcoming manifesto.

Group communications director at Just Group, Stephen Lowe, commented: “There was much rumour in the run up to the autumn statement that IHT could be in line for a haircut but no changes were announced – perhaps the Chancellor felt it would be one tax cut too many.

“The OBR’s forecasts for IHT were revised upwards yet again demonstrating the current and future value of IHT to the Treasury. The latest figures on the amount of Inheritance Tax collected were released earlier this week and showed the tax looks likely to bring in a record amount for a third consecutive year.

“All eyes now turn to the Spring Budget – likely to be this Government’s final opportunity to curry favour with the electorate – to see if the Chancellor will wield his tax scissors on IHT.”



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