The average UK house price is on track to be 1.5% higher by the end of 2024, new forecasts from Zoopla have indicated.

According to the property expert’s latest House Price Index, homebuyers are “largely shrugging off the election”, with new sales agreed 8% higher, demand up 6% and around 19% more homes for sale than a year ago.

Zoopla suggested there are signs that market activity is beginning to seasonally slow. The latest figures revealed that sales agreed are down slightly month-on-month across all regions, led by the North East (-6%) and West Midlands (-5%), as the overall stock of homes for sale continues to grow across all areas, albeit at a slower rate than recent months.

Looking ahead, Zoopla also said the near-term outlook for the sales market will depend on the outlook for mortgage rates, which are a “function of the outlook for interest rates”.

Based on city forecasts for base rates, Zoopla is expecting mortgage rates to remain in the 4-4.5% range which would be sufficient to support sales volumes and low, single digit levels of house price growth.

“The housing market continues to adjust to higher borrowing costs through modest house price falls and rising incomes,” executive director at Zoopla, Richard Donnell, commented. “Buyers using mortgages are also relying on longer mortgage terms to gain that extra few percentage points of buying power to afford a home.

“The General Election campaign has had a limited impact on market activity although the seasonal summer slowdown is arriving. Sales agreed continued to increase and more homes for sale means more buyers looking to move in the second half of the year.

“The timing of the first cut in the base rate is a key moment and will give a boost to both market sentiment and sales activity. Overall, we expect house prices to be 1.5% higher over 2024.”

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